Significant Tornado Outbreaks: An Evaluation of the SPC — Presentation Detail — Celebration of Scholars

Instructions

Student presentations must have a faculty sponsor.

Abstracts must include a title and a description of the research, scholarship, or creative work. The description should be 150-225 words in length and constructed in a format or style appropriate for the presenter’s discipline.

The following points should be addressed within the selected format or style for the abstract:

A clear statement of the problem or question you pursued, or the scholarly goal or creative theme achieved in your work.
A brief comment about the significance or uniqueness of the work.
A clear description of the methods used to achieve the purpose or goals for the work.
A statement of the conclusions, results, outcomes, or recommendations, or if the work is still in progress, the results you expect to report at the event.

Presenter photographs should be head and shoulder shots comparable to passport photos.

Additional Information

More information is available at carthage.edu/celebration-scholars/. The following are members of the Research, Scholarship, and Creativity Committee who are eager to listen to ideas and answer questions:

Jun Wang
Kim Instenes
John Kirk
Nora Nickels
Andrew Pustina
James Ripley

Significant Tornado Outbreaks: An Evaluation of the SPC

Name: John Gray
Major: Geography
Hometown: Ingleside, IL
Faculty Sponsor:
Other Sponsors:
Type of research: Senior thesis
Funding: N/A

Abstract

The purpose of this experiment was to determine the effectiveness of the risk assessment put out by the Storm Prediction Center, or SPC, in relation to significant tornado outbreaks. A significant tornado outbreak, for the purposes of this experiment, is defined as a tornado outbreak that results in multiple EF-2 or greater tornadoes, resulting in a life-threatening situation for anyone in the path of these storms.

For this experiment, two outbreaks were selected. The two events were the May 3, 1999 outbreak in Oklahoma and the April 27, 2011 outbreak in Alabama. These outbreaks were chosen because of their historical significance in meteorology and the fact that they both produced long-lived powerful tornadoes. A target area was selected for each of the events and a time window was chosen. Tornado paths were gathered and were compared to the areas of risk and were also compared by EF type.

In the end, the high risk assessment for the May 3, 1999 outbreak was slightly more accurate, as most of the tornadoes, regardless of the EF scale, took place within the area of high risk. However, for the April 27, 2011 outbreak, the more significant tornadoes fell within the high risk area, while the lower in scale tornadoes fell within the area of risk as a whole.

Poster file