Tornadoes: A Study of Warning Lead Times — Presentation Detail — Celebration of Scholars

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Student presentations must have a faculty sponsor.

Abstracts must include a title and a description of the research, scholarship, or creative work. The description should be 150-225 words in length and constructed in a format or style appropriate for the presenter’s discipline.

The following points should be addressed within the selected format or style for the abstract:

A clear statement of the problem or question you pursued, or the scholarly goal or creative theme achieved in your work.
A brief comment about the significance or uniqueness of the work.
A clear description of the methods used to achieve the purpose or goals for the work.
A statement of the conclusions, results, outcomes, or recommendations, or if the work is still in progress, the results you expect to report at the event.

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Additional Information

More information is available at carthage.edu/celebration-scholars/. The following are members of the Research, Scholarship, and Creativity Committee who are eager to listen to ideas and answer questions:

Jun Wang
Kim Instenes
John Kirk
Nora Nickels
Andrew Pustina
James Ripley

Tornadoes: A Study of Warning Lead Times

Name: Caitlyn Kawell
Major: Geography
Hometown: Wonder Lake
Faculty Sponsor:
Other Sponsors:
Type of research: Senior thesis

Abstract

During a 10-year period from 1997-2007 from May-September there were a total of 8,577 tornado events that took place, in the continental United States, with 77% having NWS warnings issued. This study examines the difference of lead times by defined geographic locations. Two datasets were gathered, one including lead times of the tornadoes and the other with Fujita scale ratings (scale to assess damages after tornadoes touchdown). The first dataset of tornado events were sorted by defined geographic regions, by month from May to September and by lead times. The second dataset was also separated by defined geographic regions, months from May to September as well as Fujita Scale rating. These two data sets were combined to conclude if the events that had zero lead times also had lower ratings on the F-scale.

Key results show the distribution of lead times across all of the defined regions, the medians of lead times across the defined regions, and how the distribution of lead times are not normal. The months that had the most tornadoes were also studied to show when the peak months for how many tornadoes occurred, separated by region. Each region was also examined separately to discover which had the highest lead times, as well as how many tornadoes occurred during the study period. Non-parametric statistical tests were used to conclude the distributions of lead times to show which region had the most warned, and highest lead time, events.

Poster file