Global scale climate forcing is projected to affect conditions in the southwestern U.S. significantly, altering base moisture and temperature conditions. In concert with micro-climate change brought on by high-severity fire events, global climate change would likely further affect future forest recovery. Ponderosa pine forests in the southwestern appear to be slow to recover after high-severity fire, and may even be replaced by alternative vegetation types for some period of time. This research asks how well these forests recover when unprecedented conditions of a high-severity fire regime combine with historical drought conditions. Tree recruitment is documented via dendrochronological dating at five sites in New Mexico after high-severity fires that burned forests in the drought that prevailed from 1945 to 1958. A water-balance type model helped to evaluate how altered microclimate conditions in the years after a fire and during a drought may inhibit ponderosa pine regeneration in comparison with drought conditions alone. Two pathways of forest recovery follow high-severity fires during drought: recovery to nonforest types, either dense shrubfields or shrubs in grasslands (4 fires) or recovery to hyperdense forest (1 fire). Model simulations predict fewer favorable opportunities for germination, fewer periods favorable for seedling establishment, shortening of favorable establishment periods, and more adverse conditions because of later spring and earlier fall hard freezes. This research suggests that a specific climate window critical to the capacity of SW ponderosa pine trees to regenerate is narrowed by a synchronous occurrence of high-severity fire and drought.