Abstract

Fewer than 100 Mexican gray wolves remain in the wild in the US, due to a history of overhunting, predator bounties, and habitat loss; making them the most critically endangered subspecies of gray wolf.  The San Juan National Forest (SJNF) of southwestern Colorado seems to be suitable habitat for them due to the physical attributes of the land, and the abundance of prey found within the area.  An introduction of the Mexican gray wolf in the SJNF would also potentially lead to the slowing of Sudden Aspen Decline (SAD) that is currently being observed in the region, in part due to overbrowsing of young aspen shoots by elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni), the key prey for wolves. This study evaluates the ecological potential for introducing Canis lupus baileyi to the SJNF and intends to better inform the Colorado public and apprise environmental groups of this possibility.  Results show that an introduction would benefit the wild Mexican gray wolf population, based upon the results of the Rosenzweig-MacArthur predator-prey model, and through spatial analysis of road density and proximity to the current recovery area.  Results also indicate that Sudden Aspen Decline would slow after a certain ratio of wolves per 1000 elk was achieved.  More broadly, an expansion of the current recovery plan would solidify that the importance of predators in their ecosystems and have a positive effect on other trophic levels.